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The Market At 2010-09-03 15:55:10 ET
10-Year: 2.708 -23+/32   GNMAs:    EUR/USD: 1.2893   USD/JPY: 84.45

(12:36) Stalled into range at lower levels

(10:02) Get some back on the ISM report

(9:53) Waiting on the next data point

(9:09) Trade slides to the worst since 8/11 on the "better" jobs report

(8:35) Market slammed on "positive" jobs data, 10-yr takes out 2.745%

Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual  -54K, consensus -120K, prior -54K (revised from -131K)

Private Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 67K, consensus 44K, prior 107K (revised from 71K)

Unemployment Rate: Actual  9.6%, consesus 9.6%, prior 9.5%

Hourly Earnings: Actual 0.3%, consensus 0.1%, prior 0.2%

Average Workweek: Actual 34.2, consensus 34.2, prior 34.2

ISM Services: Actual 51.5, consensus 53.0, prior 54.3


Dinged: The market was given a beat down, again, as the payrolls number came in better than expected, still negative and along with an uptick in the underlying rate, but still...The ISM report was not quite so pretty, but, as always, jobs trump all else, and the market was only able to get a little back with some help from pre-long holiday weekend buying and some squaring, but most of the market was gone by 10. Trade stalled and the 10-yr settled near 2.7%, the worst since 8/10 while the focus will now turn to supply with the $33 bln 3-yrs Tuesday, $21 bln 10-yrs Wednesday and $13 bln 30-yrs Thursday. There will also be the usual $30 bln each of 3-and-6-mos Tuesday. The week starts slow with data on hold until Wednesday, but the market should make a move to battle back some, although there is plenty working against them here to keep things pressured. The curve trade stalled out near 219 on the 2-10-yr yield spread after a run steeper to 224 and change the widest since 8/10. The dollar was pushed lower with the index 82.01 while the euro saw 1.2890 and the yen swung from 85.20 to 84.20 on the buck as safety plays backed out and came back. The long holiday weekend, not sweetened by an early close in bonds (thanks to a 2-1 vote) head into a Tuesday empty of data or Fed-speak but starts the auctions with the 3-yrs (13).

The Interest Rate Outlook

Last Updated: 2010-09-03, 16:00:18 ET

Surprise. Surprise
The Federal Open Market Committee pulled a few rabbits out of their proverbial hat this week and gave the bond market some new reasons to rally.
Obviously, they did nothing, zip, nada, with rates, this meeting, of course. But The policy-posse ,first off, acknowledged, much as they were expected and pretty much had to, that the pace of the recovery has slowed and will...
Last Updated: 2010-08-30, 08:55:24 ET

Can't Always Get What You Want: Whew. Bonds had another crazy making week with all the moving parts converging on one side of the boat until today when they all flipped back to the other side. The market gave up all its gains on the week in the 7-years and out the curve while seeing even more damage in the shorter end. All in one session. The 10-year was swung from 2.651% mid-week to sit near the...

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior
Sep 0308:30:00Nonfarm PayrollsAug-54K-106K-120K-54K
Sep 0308:30:01Nonfarm Payrolls - PrivateAug67K10K44K107K
Sep 0308:30:02Unemployment RateAug9.6%9.6%9.6%9.5%
Sep 0308:30:03Hourly EarningsAug0.3%0.1%0.1%0.2%
Sep 0308:30:04Average WorkweekAug34.234.234.234.2
Sep 0310:00:00ISM ServicesAug51.551.053.054.3
Sep 0814:00:00Fed's Beige BookSepNANANA